Democrats on the Erie County Legislature outdid County Executive Chris Collins nearly one year ago by lowering his property tax rate.

Will they do it again with the budget he gave them Friday for 2010?

"My real concern is he kept the tax rate the same," said Legislator Robert B. Reynolds, D-Hamburg, whose committee will lead the review of Collins' proposal to spend about $1.05 billion next year while keeping the tax rate flat.

"We are going to have a surplus this year. I would like to see if we could do some decreases in spending to see if we could lower the tax rate," Reynolds said.

Collins said he would continue charging $5.03 for every $1,000 of assessed value, the rate set after his messy court battle with the Legislature over the 2009 budget.

But even with the same tax rate, the government will collect more from its total pool of property owners -- about $9 million more next year -- because of increases in assessed values and new construction going on the tax rolls.

Assessment hikes by the cities and towns have helped Erie County keep its tax rate low yet still collect a lot more tax money year after year.

Since 2006, the tax rate has increased only slightly, from $4.94 to $5.03, one of the lowest in the state.

But the amount generated by those rates -- the sum that all property owners fork over -- will have increased 24 percent by 2010, to a total of $232.4 million.

Meanwhile, Erie County charges the highest sales tax rate in upstate New York, 8.75 percent. Collins expects next year's sales tax revenue to jump 2 percent, rebounding from this year's decline of more than 4 percent.

Legislators looking to cut the property tax rate have another factor in their favor: Erie County expects to close its current budget year with another surplus. Collins boasted about that likelihood Friday when he described his budget to reporters.

With annual surpluses, Erie County has been rebuilding the rainy day fund that was drained during the mid-decade budget meltdown. While the comptroller and county executive disagree on the total pool that's available, the government has at least $57 million in reserve.

Another factor to consider: This is an election year for legislators, and the Republican Collins has targeted for defeat some of the very Democrats who will be front and center in this year's budget review.

It can work in their favor if they can again cut taxes.

Reynolds, chairman of the Finance, Management and Budget Committee, is one legislator in Collins' cross hairs. Another is Michele M. Iannello, D-Kenmore.

Iannello says she cannot support a budget that does not cut taxes.

"Now more than ever, Erie County residents need property tax relief," she said recently. "Last year the county executive raised taxes, but now we have a budget surplus, and it is time to return the money to the taxpayers."

Is it the prudent course? The government's long-term forecast is not a smooth stretch of highway. The federal stimulus money that has helped Erie County pay for its Medicaid program and close budget gaps will run out after next year. Without the stimulus money, the county would be running a deficit.

While Collins increased total spending for 2010 by 0.2 percent, he foresees the need for an almost 5 percent spending increase for 2011 and another 3.7 percent spike for 2012.

The total amount required from property owners, meanwhile, would go from $232.4 million -- assuming the Legislature does not cut taxes -- to $251.4 million.

That would be a 8 percent increase over just two years. And it still would not close future budget gaps.

"If they cut spending proportionally that's fine," Comptroller Mark C. Poloncarz said of county lawmakers. "I have said if they can cut spending and they can cut property taxes, good. But if they take this budget and cut property taxes without an equivalent reduction in spending, they will be setting themselves up for an even larger fall next year."

Poloncarz called the Collins four-year plan a mess. It reveals a budget shortfall of $50 million in 2011 and $63 million by 2013. He said he would be shocked if the state-appointed Erie County Fiscal Stability Authority approves the four-year plan as drafted.

"It is looking very dark on the horizon when we are looking at 2011 and beyond," Poloncarz said. "There is a storm that is already here that is being taken care of by federal funds. When those federal funds disappear, that storm is going to hit very hard."

Collins on Friday said he'd like lawmakers to approve the budget before Election Day, Nov. 3, "so we know where they stand."

Reynolds says that's not likely. The Legislature's review begins Oct. 26 with a public hearing set for 5 p.m. Nov. 12 on the fourth floor of Old County Hall. The budget is expected to be adopted Nov. 25.

Copyright 2009, The Buffalo News